Economic Indicators for China: A Closer Look at LEI and CEI Performance in December 2025

Understanding the Latest Decline in China's Economic Indices

The economic landscape of China continues to face significant fluctuations as evidenced by recent reports from the Conference Board. In December 2025, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China recorded a slight decrease of 0.1%, landing at 145.3 (2016=100). This downturn follows a previous decline of 0.2% in November, marking a troubling trend for economic observers.

Analysis of the Leading Economic Index (LEI)

Over the second half of 2025, the LEI contracted by 1.8%, a notable contrast to the 1.9% decline seen during the first half of the year, from December 2024 to June 2025. This consistent drop in the LEI is indicative of slowing economic activity and suggests potential challenges for businesses and policy-makers aiming to stimulate growth. The LEI is a critical predictor of future economic performance, making its decline a point of concern for analysts who monitor economic health.

Insights into the Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

Alongside the LEI, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for China revealed a decrease of 0.7% in December 2025, settling at 154.1 (2016=100). This follows a more severe decline of 0.9% in November 2025. Unlike the LEI, which focuses on future performances, the CEI reflects the current state of the economy, measuring real-time economic indicators such as employment and industrial production. The CEI's contraction of 0.6% in the second half of 2025 starkly contrasts the growth observed in the first half, where an impressive increase of 1.8% was recorded. This trend underscores a worrying shift in economic momentum.

In summary, the recent decreases in both the Leading and Coincident Economic Indices for China highlight ongoing economic challenges as 2025 concludes. The LEI's downward trajectory, alongside the CEI's recent contraction, calls for an in-depth analysis of government policies and market conditions that may be influencing these trends. As we move forward into 2026, stakeholders will need to closely monitor these indices to better understand the implications for economic forecasts and growth strategies in China.

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